A real estate expert is warning that Florida’s housing market is heading for a downturn similar to the crash in 2008. John Carter, the CEO of a housing app, said fewer people are moving to Florida, and there are too many homes for sale at prices many people can’t afford.
What Changed Since the Pandemic?
During the pandemic, many people moved to Florida. This led to a boom in home building and buying. But now, that trend has flipped. Fewer people are moving in, and some are even leaving. This has caused more homes to sit on the market without buyers.
Too Many Homes, Not Enough Buyers
Carter said there are now 177,000 homes for sale in Florida, the most ever. In comparison, the whole Northeast U.S. has only 79,000 homes for sale—the fewest ever. At the same time, the number of people moving to Florida has dropped by 80% since the pandemic. This drop in demand is happening while home prices remain high, making it hard for locals to afford a home.
Buyers Struggling With High Costs
Florida buyers now have to spend about 39% of their income on mortgage and property taxes. That’s the highest percentage since the housing bubble of 2006-2007. While home prices in other states like New York are rising, Florida home prices have already dropped 2.4% in the past year and could fall another 5% in the next year.
What’s Causing the Downturn?
Carter says the biggest reason for the slowdown is fewer people moving to Florida, not things like HOA fees or hurricane risks. He believes this decline in new residents could last for years. To fix the situation, he says housing prices would need to drop a lot so more people can afford to move in again.
Summary
Florida’s housing market is facing a big shift. With fewer people moving in, too many homes on the market, and prices that locals can’t afford, experts warn that home values could keep falling for years unless things change.
